Why Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's scheduled negotiations on the almost four-year conflict in the region have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Just days after President Trump said he intended to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
  • Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
  • Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed

The frequently changing meeting is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to broker an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in Egypt recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.

However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost four years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was Israel's move to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump gained from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The US president, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.

Combine Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.

Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the wake of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.

The president often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results.

Putin may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.

During the summer, Putin consented to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards delayed.

Recently, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.

The following day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.

The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine later made note of the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he said.

Thus, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – including land Russia has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.

On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that ending the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.

Elizabeth Richardson
Elizabeth Richardson

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