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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It commonly serves as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence wins the award. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the most shocking shock.

However this year's race is fundamentally different. The pool of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions falling away and recent strugglers improving collectively. In an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still