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Amid the immense confusion surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the recent overnight operation marked its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The move to assault another independent nation and seize its president – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other parts of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may regret it if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.