🔗 Share this article A Forecasting Platform User Earned $436K on Bets on Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of Nicolás Maduro shortly prior to it was made public, raising questions about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of American actions. Sudden Shift in Wagers Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the month's conclusion increased in the time leading up to President Donald Trump stated on the weekend that the president had been apprehended. A single trader, which joined the platform recently and placed four wagers, all on political events in Venezuela, profited a total of $nearly half a million from a modest bet of $32,537. The identity is unknown. The user had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Market Signals Before News Break Market statistics shows that participants estimated the likelihood of a political change at just a low 6.5 percent in the midday period of the Friday before the event. Yet the market's assessment had climbed to 11% by shortly before midnight and surged in the early hours of Saturday, pointing to a sudden change in market sentiment just before the social media post was made. "That trade has all the characteristics of a transaction based on confidential knowledge," said Dennis Kelleher. A handful of other platform users also earned tens of thousands of dollars from bets on the same outcome. Legal Questions Grows Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention. Proposed legislation introduced on the start of the week seeks to ban government employees from participating on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a bet. The Prediction Market Landscape Prediction markets have surged in popularity in the United States, with participants able to predict everything from elections to politics. The industry encountered regulatory challenges under the Biden administration. But it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency. Using confidential knowledge is a crime in the traditional financial markets, but there are less oversight in the prediction market space. A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against insider trading of any form."